Earnings & Macro Week Ahead 10 – 14 August 2026

This week July US inflation is published on Wednesday, the first reading since the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July by nine votes to three, with all three dissenters wanting a quarter-point rise. Market pricing on the day of the decision put the chance of an increase in September at around 72%. For most of the past two years an upside surprise in inflation pushed the next cut further out. Now the same surprise strengthens the case for a rise in September.

Barrick, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile report on Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, Cisco reports on Wednesday and JD.com on Thursday.

Your week at a glance

Monday 10 August

• Barrick Mining, before the US open

• Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, after the US close

Tuesday 11 August

• Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, monetary policy statement and press conference from 04:30 UTC. Cash rate currently 4.35%

Wednesday 12 August

• US CPI for July (12:30 UTC). Prior 3.5% year on year, core 2.6%

• Cisco, after the US close

Thursday 13 August

• UK GDP, first estimate for Q2 (06:00 UTC). Prior 0.6% on the quarter

• US producer prices for July (12:30 UTC). Prior 5.5% year on year on final demand, 5.1% excluding food, energy and trade services

• JD.com, before the US open

Friday 14 August

• US retail sales for July (12:30 UTC). Prior 0.2% on the month, 6.7% on the year

US inflation focus:

Wednesday’s CPI covers the month of July, when Brent traded above $90 for much of the second half. Brent has since eased back below $90 while the US and Iran talk about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though traffic through the strait remains well below pre-conflict levels.

Headline CPI fell 0.4% on the month in June, its largest drop since April 2020, taking the annual rate to 3.5%. The energy index fell 5.7% over the month, though it remained 15.7% higher than a year earlier. Core inflation held at 2.6%. July’s higher crude passes through that same energy component.

Chair Warsh has removed forward guidance from the Fed’s statement.

Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts:

Three increases since February took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%. June quarter inflation, published on 30 July, came in at 3.8% on the headline measure and 3.6% on the trimmed mean, below expectations. All four major Australian banks forecast a hold. Governor Bullock’s June statement kept the option of raising further, if required.

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile latest:

Rocket Lab has already guided Q2 revenue to a narrow $225m to $240m. Neutron, the company’s first rocket built to land and fly again, has not flown yet, and its debut is targeted for the fourth quarter after slipping from 2025. The first flight is planned to end in a soft splashdown rather than a landing. A rocket in the water on the day would mean the flight went to plan. Backlog passed $2.2bn at the end of Q1 with around 36% of it due to convert inside 12 months. More than $2bn of liquidity covers Neutron’s remaining development.

AST SpaceMobile booked $14.7m of revenue in Q1 against reaffirmed full-year guidance of $150m to $200m, roughly half of which management says is covered by contracted backlog.

A Falcon 9 carried BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 into orbit on 5 August, taking the number launched to 13. In July, the company moved its target of about 45 satellites from the end of 2026 to early 2027 on launch availability. It’s aiming to start beta service later this year. The US Federal Communications Commission has authorised commercial service across the US for a network of up to 248 satellites, with AT&T and Verizon among nearly 60 operator partners.

Cisco and the AI infrastructure:

In May, Cisco raised its full-year AI infrastructure order target to $9bn from $5bn and its AI revenue target to $4bn from $3bn, with $5.3bn of orders booked at that point, leaving about $3.7bn to come in the fourth quarter. Fiscal Q4 revenue is guided at $16.7bn to $16.9bn with adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 to $1.18. Restructuring charges run to as much as $1bn in total, $450m of it in this quarter. The guidance assumes current tariffs and exemptions hold to the fiscal year end.

Barrick Mining price changes:

The 2026 cost guidance assumes a gold price of $4,500 an ounce, and Barrick puts its cost sensitivity at $5 an ounce for every $100 an ounce change in the price, almost all that coming through royalties. Q1 all-in sustaining costs were $1,708 an ounce against cost of sales of $1,922. Q2 production is guided to 730,000 to 770,000 ounces, up from 719,000 in Q1, and full-year guidance is unchanged at 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold and 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper.

JD.com insights on Asian consumer spending:

Management has already called the first half the weak half, with electronics and home appliances measured against the high base of last year’s trade-in subsidy programme, and has guided to a recovery at JD Retail in the second half. In the new businesses, JD spent heavily to buy food delivery share, has said that investment has now peaked, and narrowed losses sequentially in Q1. Another narrowing would support the case that margins are recovering, while a widening would suggest the price war continues.

Chinese producer prices rose 4.1% in the year to June, the fastest since July 2022, while consumer prices rose only 1.0%. Producers are absorbing input costs they cannot pass on. JD sells into the consumer end of that gap.