Key Themes This Week
- US jobs report: October payrolls will test whether September’s weak employment growth was temporary or the start of a softer trend.
- Bank of England: UK rates are back in focus, with the Bank facing above target inflation and persistent wage pressures.
- Apple, AMD and Palantir earnings: Technology earnings continue, shifting attention from the hyperscalers to consumer technology, semiconductors and AI software.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Australian inflation has climbed to 4.3%, putting another rate decision under close scrutiny.
- US business activity: ISM manufacturing and services data provide an early reading on economic conditions in October.
The US labour market takes over from central banks as the main macro story this week. September produced just 29,000 new payrolls, while unemployment held at 4.2%. Friday’s October employment report will therefore carry more weight than usual as investors assess whether the economy is losing momentum.
Rates are hardly disappearing from the agenda. The Bank of England decides policy on Thursday with Bank Rate at 3.75%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday with its cash rate at 4.60%. Both are dealing with inflation pressures that complicate the outlook.
Earnings provide the other major test. Apple and Palantir report on Monday, followed by AMD on Tuesday. Arm and Qualcomm then report on Wednesday. Together, they offer another look at consumer demand, AI investment and semiconductor spending after a busy week for mega cap technology.
Your Week at a Glance
Monday 2 November
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October at 3:00pm UK time.
- Apple reports fourth quarter results after Wall Street closes.
- Palantir reports third quarter results after the close.
Why it matters: Manufacturing provides the week’s first meaningful US growth signal. After the close, Apple puts consumer technology demand under examination, while Palantir provides another test of the high expectations surrounding AI shares.
Tuesday 3 November
- Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision.
- US JOLTS job openings for September at 3:00pm UK time.
- AMD reports third quarter results after Wall Street closes.
Why it matters: The Australian dollar will be sensitive to the RBA’s response to inflation, while JOLTS provides an early indication of US labour demand ahead of Friday’s payrolls. AMD then puts AI chip demand back at the centre of the equity market.
Wednesday 4 November
- US ISM Services PMI for October at 3:00pm UK time.
- Uber reports third quarter results.
- Arm and Qualcomm report after Wall Street closes.
Why it matters: Services account for the majority of US economic activity, making the ISM report a useful check on growth and price pressures. Semiconductor earnings remain important for the wider AI trade.
Thursday 5 November
- Bank of England interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report.
- US third quarter productivity and labour costs at 1:30pm UK time.
- US weekly jobless claims at 1:30pm UK time.
Why it matters: Sterling and gilts face the week’s main European monetary policy event. In the US, labour cost data provide another piece of the inflation picture one day before payrolls.
Friday 6 November
- US October nonfarm payrolls at 1:30pm UK time.
- US unemployment rate and average hourly earnings released alongside payrolls.
- The employment report closes the week’s main macro calendar.
Why it matters: Friday’s jobs report could change expectations for the next Federal Reserve meeting. Payroll growth, unemployment and wages need to be considered together rather than treating the headline jobs number in isolation.
What Matters Most This Week?
Is the US Labour Market Finally Slowing?
- September payrolls increased by just 29,000.
- Unemployment held at 4.2%.
- JOLTS arrives Tuesday before the main employment report on Friday.
- Wage growth remains important to the inflation outlook.
The October jobs report is arguably the week’s most important global macro event.
September’s increase of just 29,000 payrolls was weak enough to raise questions about the underlying strength of employment. One month does not establish a trend, which makes Friday’s report particularly important.
Traders should look beyond payroll growth. A weaker headline number accompanied by stable unemployment and firm wage growth would send a different signal from a report showing broader deterioration across employment, hours worked and earnings.
Treasuries and the dollar are likely to provide the quickest reaction. A weaker labour market could reduce expectations for further monetary tightening, putting downward pressure on yields. A stronger report would make that argument harder to sustain.
The Nasdaq and other growth heavy indices also remain sensitive to yields, meaning the employment report could have consequences well beyond currencies and bonds.
Bank of England Faces Another Inflation Problem
- Bank Rate currently stands at 3.75%.
- UK inflation reached 3.5% in September.
- Wage growth remains a concern for policymakers.
- New economic forecasts accompany Thursday’s decision.
The Bank of England has a difficult balance to strike.
Inflation remains comfortably above its 2% target, while the Bank’s own surveys suggest businesses expect pay to rise by around 3.5% in 2027. Policymakers have repeatedly focused on wages because persistent pay growth can make domestic inflation slower to fall.
Markets enter the meeting expecting the Bank to increase rates by 25 basis points. That means the reaction may depend less on the increase itself and more on what the Monetary Policy Committee says about the months ahead.
Sterling and gilts are the markets to watch first. Traders should also pay attention to the vote split and the Bank’s updated inflation and growth projections. Any indication that policymakers see several further increases as necessary would carry greater significance than a widely expected move this week.
UK rate sensitive shares, particularly housebuilders and other domestically focused companies, could also respond to changes in the expected path for borrowing costs.
Apple, AMD and Palantir Take Over the Earnings Calendar
- Apple and Palantir report Monday.
- AMD follows on Tuesday.
- Arm and Qualcomm report Wednesday.
- AI demand remains one of the main questions running through the week’s technology results.
After Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon dominated the previous week, the technology earnings story moves to a different group of companies.
Apple is the largest. Its results cover the September quarter and therefore include the opening period of iPhone 18 Pro sales. Investors will also be interested in the company’s outlook for the important holiday quarter.
AMD matters for a different reason. The company previously guided for third quarter revenue of approximately $13 billion, making its results an important indicator of demand for AI accelerators and data centre hardware.
Palantir provides perhaps the clearest test of expectations. Second quarter revenue grew 93%, and the company guided for third quarter revenue of roughly $2.16 billion. Its US commercial business has been expanding particularly quickly.
The individual reports are different, but the market question is similar. Can earnings growth continue to support valuations that already assume substantial future growth?
The Nasdaq 100 is the obvious market to watch, alongside semiconductor shares and other companies linked to AI spending.
Australia Puts Inflation Back on the Rates Agenda
- The RBA decides policy on Tuesday.
- The cash rate currently stands at 4.60%.
- Australian annual inflation reached 4.3% in September.
- The Australian dollar and government bonds are the main markets to watch.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has returned to a familiar problem. Inflation is moving in the wrong direction.
Annual CPI inflation reached 4.3% in September, while the cash rate currently stands at 4.60%. The RBA’s next decision is scheduled for Tuesday.
For traders, the important issue is the Bank’s assessment of inflation rather than the rate decision in isolation. Any indication that price pressures require a longer period of restrictive policy could support Australian yields and the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD is particularly interesting because the other side of the trade is also facing an important week. Expectations for US rates will be influenced by JOLTS, ISM surveys and Friday’s payroll report.
That gives traders two separate monetary policy stories to consider within the same currency pair.
ISM Surveys Test the US Growth Story
- Manufacturing PMI arrives Monday.
- Services PMI follows Wednesday.
- Services provides the broader signal for the US economy.
- Prices and employment components deserve attention as well as the headline readings.
The ISM surveys can easily become secondary releases during a payroll week, but they are particularly useful this time because markets are trying to establish whether softer employment is being accompanied by weaker economic activity.
Manufacturing comes first on Monday. Services follows on Wednesday and is likely to carry greater weight given the structure of the US economy.
The headline PMI readings matter, but traders should also watch the employment and prices components.
Weak employment readings would reinforce concerns ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Stronger price readings would create a less comfortable combination by suggesting that inflation pressures remain even as parts of the economy slow.
Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to respond most directly, although equity markets could also react if the surveys materially change expectations for growth or interest rates.
Key Takeaways
- Friday’s US jobs report is the week’s most important macro release after September produced only 29,000 new payrolls.
- JOLTS and the ISM surveys provide early clues about the US economy before payrolls arrive.
- The Bank of England faces above target inflation and persistent wage pressures on Thursday.
- Apple earnings will provide an important update on consumer technology demand and the holiday quarter.
- AMD, Palantir, Arm and Qualcomm keep AI and semiconductor expectations firmly in focus.
- The RBA decision matters after Australian inflation reached 4.3%.
- Treasury yields remain important for equities, particularly technology shares with high valuations.
- Sterling, the Australian dollar and the US dollar all have clear domestic catalysts during the week.