Independent Investor News and Updates

Poll Pushes Sterling Higher as Tories Looking at 80-seat Majority

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Shaken last Friday by an appalling pair of PMIs, sterling got its mojo back on Monday after a monthly poll of polls put the Tories on course for an 80 seat majority. Though you’d think any kind of Brexit would spook the pound, at this point it just wants it over and done with. That means the ostensible clarity of the Conservative position – alongside the general right-leaning tendencies of the market – is immensely appealing to sterling, hence the big gains seen following the latest projections. Currently Spreadex has Conservative seats at 345-535, with Labour at 201-209, the SNP at 44-47 and the Lib Dems at 24-28. Against the dollar it rose 0.6%, sending cable back above $1.2905, while against the euro it climbed the same amount, leaving it just short of €1.171. Normally such a surge from sterling would give the FTSE an immediate migraine. However, the strength of positive sentiment following the Global Times’ claim that the US and China are ‘very close’ to a deal – alongside the pro-democracy results in Hong Kong and Beijing’s announcement […]

ETFinance Review and Investigation

Author: trader / In News

A new broker’s in town… this time it’s ETFinance. Having searched online we decided to share our findings. All the information is in public domain so please feel free to double check, if you wish. So Who Are ETFinance? ETFinance is a trading name of MAGNUM FX (CYPRUS) LTD registration number HE 360548 authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (the “”CySEC””) under license number 359/18. As we can see from The Open Database Of The Corporate World, MAGNUM FX (CYPRUS) LTD was incorporated on 28 September 2016 and domain ETFinance.eu was registered on 29 July 2018 with GoDaddy. Some ETFinance Reviews from Internet New broker, so we decided to spend a bit of time and see what we could find. In no particular order: 1. According to forexbrokerz.com it’s “ETFinance is a reliable broker” – not sure a broker can become so reliable so quickly. 2. According to forexbonuslab.com it’s “They provide high-quality service and they are licensed by multiple highly respected regulatory bodies.” – not entirely true, as ETFinance is regulated only by CySEC. 3. leaprate.com state […]

Importance Of A Trading Plan To Succeed In Forex Business

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Just like the advice given to a beginner in any business, failing to plan is seen as the basis for planning to fail. Following a written plan definitely helps a trader to succeed in forex business just like any other. A written plan may not ensure guarantee in the forex business, but however it puts the trader in a position to be able to correct course in case of wrong moves or incorrect techniques that are deployed. Having a forex trading plan in place keeps the trader aware about what works and what does not. A forex trading plan helps the trader to develop a correct mindset which is the basis for long-term success in such an endeavor. Given below are some points that can be kept in mind while forming a forex trading plan and the advantages of following such a plan. Forex Trading Plan – How To Make One A Forex trading plan works like a roadmap providing a clear path to one’s destination. Here the destination is the financial goals of the trader. Some of the other […]

Week Ahead: Wall Street is Rocking after Some Hefty Falls

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Wall Street is rocking after some hefty falls for the major indices, but there could be succour in the form of earnings as the Q1 season gets underway on Friday. Earnings Season Wall Street is rocking after some hefty falls for the major indices, but there could be succour in the form of earnings as the Q1 season gets underway on Friday. Citigroup and Wells Fargo are the first big banks to report their first quarter results. The question facing investors is whether a strong earnings season can halt the stock market slide. While equities have been hit by worries about a trade war and various tech sector trouble, there is yet hope that Q1 earnings will deliver a fillip as the impact of tax effects and stronger economic growth are felt on bottom lines. Investors may also be optimistic that corporate tax cuts lead to more share buybacks and dividends. According to Bloomberg, analysts expect first quarter earnings growth of 17% – up from 13% at the start of the year. FactSet says Q1 2018 has seen the biggest […]

Week Ahead: Big Economic Releases

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Spotify IPO, Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payrolls are the big events for markets in the coming days. Spotify IPO The unconventional initial public offering (IPO) of Swedish streaming service Spotify (SPOT) on April 3rd is the headline event this week. Unlike traditional market debuts, the company is using a direct listing that sidesteps the usual investor roadshows and team of investment bankers underwriting the offering. It is expected to be the biggest launch since the Snap IPO last year and comes at a time when the number of tech IPOs as a proportion of total US listings is at a two-decade low. Many hope that a successful IPO could encourage other unicorns like Airbnb and Uber to list publicly, having so far gone down the private funding route. Ahead of the IPO, management delivered a bullish assessment of future growth. Guidance revealed last week shows they expect sales to rise to between €4.9bn and €5.3bn this year, up 20-30% year-over-year. Although this is a slowdown from the 38% growth in 2017, Spotify expects losses to shrink and gross margins […]

Week Ahead: Big Economic Releases

Author: Phil Evans / In News

The Fed is all but certain to raise rates, but will policymakers revise up their forecasts for the number of hikes in 2018? Federal Reserve The US Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to raise interest rates again this week, the first of three or even four hikes forecast in 2018. Inflation has picked up and minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed more bullishness on the US economy. Jay Powell, who will preside over the meeting as chair for the first time, told Congress that economic conditions have picked up since the end of last year. With a hike all but a done deal, the focus for traders will be fresh economic projections and the so-called dot plot, which details where policymakers expect rates to be over the medium term. If consensus points to four hikes in 2018 this could unnerve markets and support the USD. However, there may yet be some concern about the durability of inflationary pressures. While the January CPI was well ahead of forecast, and came off the back of that average earnings print of 2.9% […]

Week Ahead: Your Quick Glance

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Italian elections and an important European Central Bank could create volatility for the euro, while Brexit talks are sure to impact sterling. Italian Elections A key election but this does not appear to pose the same kind of risk as was perceived before the constitutional referendum of December 2016. Italians go to the polls on Sunday (March 4th) with the results expected to be known by early Monday when European markets open. Polls close at 10pm (London time) with exit polls released immediately. Although often quite reliable, in 2013 they suggested much stronger support for the centre-left coalition than actually was the case. A new voting system incorporating dual elements of proportional representation and first-past-the-post makes calling this one harder than in the past. So far the market reaction has been fairly limited – while the result is uncertain this does not appear to be a binary choice between pro-European and anti-EU parties or candidates as we saw with the French presidential election. Worst-case Eurozone breakup risks are very small ahead of this election but a potential surprise could jolt […]

Week Ahead: Eurozone Inflation, FOMC Minutes and FTSE Results in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Eurozone final CPI inflation for January will be among the main events in the forex markets as traders look to see whether the data supports the hawks or the doves on the European Central Bank’s governing council. Eurozone Inflation On Friday, Eurozone final CPI inflation for January will be among the main events in the forex markets as traders look to see whether the data supports the hawks or the doves on the European Central Bank’s governing council. Flash estimates showed prices rose by 1.3% from the same month in 2017, in line with expectations but it was the slowest annual pace since July and came after price growth cooled in December. The more closely-watched core CPI rate, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food, climbed to 1% from 0.9% in December. The data gives the ECB pause for thought: does it need to unwind stimulus as quickly as the hawks want, or is there still not the sustained uptick in underlying price pressures to warrant taking the foot off the gas? In spite of the Eurozone […]

Week Ahead: Focus on Inflation and Retail Sales Data, Brexit Looms

Author: Phil Evans / In News

FX markets have taken rising bond yields and the prospect of tighter Fed policy in their stride; it was the equity markets that reacted violently to a re-pricing of US monetary policy. With this in mind the week ahead contains some key releases on US inflation and retail sales that could deliver more volatility for financial markets. Inflation Coming off the back of rising bond yields, the surprising rise in US wages in the nonfarm payroll report was the cue for a big selloff in stock markets. Markets appeared concerned that average earnings growth of 2.9% suddenly heralded the end of cheap money, a more hawkish Fed and higher rates. An overreaction perhaps, and one that was undoubtedly compounded by some technical moves in the Vix and short volatility trades, but nevertheless markets are having to adjust to normalisation by the Fed. So US CPI inflation due on Wednesday will be central to both FX and indices this week. The last report indicates that price pressures are building. Core inflation accelerated to 1.8% in December on an annual basis, after […]

Week Ahead: Bank of England, RBA and RBNZ Interest Rate Decisions in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Following the Fed’s marginally hawkish shift last week, picking up the central bank mantle in the coming days are the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Bank of England Is the Bank of England mulling another interest rate hike sooner rather than later? While there is no expectation for a change in policy this week, there have been murmurings around the monetary policy committee having more leeway to raise rates faster than previously expected. Fourth quarter growth, which defied expectations to remain robust, has some economists thinking the BoE will move to increase rates in the summer. Meanwhile, the BoE itself is starting to think along more conventional lines as it focuses on a return to wage growth. And while inflation resulting for the depreciation in sterling is becoming less important, rising oil prices are pushing up input costs and may keep inflation at the top end of target in 2018. “The focus is increasingly on returning inflation sustainably to target over an appropriate horizon,” governor Mark Carney said last week. Ultimately, […]