Independent Investor News and Updates

Week Ahead: Fed to Outline Path for Rate Hikes in 2018

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Central banks are the focus this week with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all in action. With the ECB and BoE expected to stand pat, the Fed is the star attraction as it is anticipated to raise rates again and release fresh forecasts for hikes in 2018 and beyond. Federal Reserve The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is all but certain to raise interest rates again on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a roughly 90% chance that the target federal funds rate will be increased by a further 25 basis points. The focus for market participants is therefore on the updated economic projections and the so-called dot plot, which sets out how policymakers see the likely path of interest rates. With tax reform now firmly on the agenda, it is anticipated that policymakers may raise their forecasts. This could see the median fed funds […]

Brexit Crunch Lunch and US Nonfarm Payrolls

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Despite a paucity of corporate earnings, there is no shortage of fodder for traders as we approach a key moment for Brexit, the final nonfarm payrolls release before the Fed’s December meeting and a good smattering of PMI releases to chew on. Brexit Monday kicks off with British prime minister Theresa May in Brussels for lunch with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. It is hoped that a pledge to offer more cash for the divorce bill will uncork talks on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Whilst the financial settlement appears to be resolved, it is unclear whether ‘sufficient progress’ has been made on the contentious topics of the Irish border and citizens’ rights. GBPUSD rallied on news that the UK was prepared to up its offer, but the bulls have been kept on a fairly tight leash since as there are still numerous doubts about whether the European council […]

Week Ahead: OPEC Meeting, UK Bank Stress Tests

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Oil is the asset in focus as OPEC discusses a potential extension of production curbs, while in equities all eyes are on British banks with the Bank of England’s stress tests due out. OPEC Oil grandees from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) convene in Vienna for their semi-annual meeting on Thursday, November 30th. The key topic for discussion will be whether to extend the 1.8m barrel-a-day production curbs due to expire in March 2018. Current market consensus is that members, along with Russia, will agree to prolong the output controls as they seek further rebalancing in the oil market. Expectations are high. Crude prices jumped to two-year highs ahead of the meeting in anticipation and speculative net long positions are at record highs, according to CFTC data. With the market positioned this long, it may be tough for OPEC to deliver enough to see crude futures rally any […]

Week Ahead: Inflation Data & Wal-Mart Earnings

Author: Phil Evans / In News

This week the inflation data from the US and UK will be closely watched. UK Inflation Following the Brexit talks and some turmoil in the cabinet over the last few days, the focus for sterling traders returns to the data this week. On Tuesday is the release of the latest CPI inflation figures, which are expected to remain steady at around the 3% mark. Rising inflation helped the Bank of England hike interest rates but it’s expected to fall back towards the 2% target level fairly soon as the worst of the pound’s decline no longer forms part of the year-on-year calculations. US Retail Sales and Inflation Following the British data we have the monthly CPI inflation and retail sales data dump from the US on Wednesday. Higher gas prices meant a jump in the headline rate, underlying inflation remained a slack. Core CPI rose 1.7% year-on-year in September, flat […]

Week Ahead: Hoping for Brexit Breakthrough

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Another round of Brexit talks, central bank policy decisions and more earnings releases. Brexit Talks The next round of negotiations begins on Thursday with two days of talks between the UK and EU expected to yield more progress than previous meetings. That is because the UK’s chief negotiator and Brexit secretary, David Davis, has signalled Britain may be prepared to give ground to the EU over the much-contested divorce bill. “The withdrawal agreement, on balance, will probably favour the union in terms of things like money and so on,” he told MPs, adding that the plan is to “strategically accelerate the process”. His counterpart, Michel Barnier, has also been sounding more positive, saying that he is “ready to speed up negotiations”. Talks on the future UK-EU relationship cannot proceed until the divorce is settled and the bill is seen as the largest sticking point. If the next round of talks […]