Independent Investor News and Updates

Week Ahead: Central Bankers Convene in Jackson Hole

Author: Phil Evans / In News

The biggest events in the markets over the coming week. Jackson Hole August is the quietest month. Traders are on holiday and volumes are thin. In this environment it’s all eyes on Jackson Hole for the annual gathering of central bankers and economists. Last time they got together in Portugal earlier in the summer there appeared to be a degree of coordinated hawkishness, but has this survived? In Jackson Hole there are two big questions that traders will want answers to. First, how close is the European Central Bank to dialling back stimulus. In July president Mario Draghi said the Governing Council is likely to discuss tapering in the autumn. What he wasn’t clear about was whether the next meeting in September counts as the autumn. The euro, which has ripped higher as markets seem to be front-running ECB tapering, could be left exposed to any dovish sentiment. Second, will […]

Week Ahead: UK Inflation and FOMC Minutes in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

North Korea The situation on the Korean peninsula will be front and centre as investors weigh to what extent risk needs to be taken off the table. Threats of a strike on Guam and warnings about American retribution chilled markets last week, sparking a wave of risk-off selling in equities and demand for havens like the Swiss franc. UK Inflation, Earnings & Retail Sales It’s a busy week for sterling traders with three big releases on the hoof. First up on Tuesday is the key CPI inflation data, which remains the key factor dictating the Bank of England’s policy path. Last month the data showed a retreat from 2.9% to 2.6% amid signs that the worst of the exchange rate impact is over. However, the Bank still believes this will pick up again, peaking at 3% later in the year before easing back. Meanwhile, average earnings data on Wednesday will […]

Week Ahead: US Dollar Faces Inflation Test

Author: Phil Evans / In News

After sinking to its lowest level since the start of 2015, the US dollar faces a huge test this week as markets look to key CPI inflation data for a signal about where the Federal Reserve could be about to take monetary policy. US CPI The big macro economic data comes from the US in the shape of consumer price inflation figures for the last month. The data is a key marker for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy as it aims to achieve its inflation target of 2%. At its last meeting the FOMC noted that it is ‘monitoring inflation developments closely’. This was the first real signal the Fed could be about to blink and is no longer convinced that the strong labour market is enough to get inflation to its target rate. This would chime with the hidden slack we know is in the labour market, which […]

Week Ahead: Apple Q3, Nonfarm Payrolls and DAX Earnings

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Apple (AAPL) reports its quarterly numbers as earnings season continues apace on both sides of the Atlantic, whilst some big macro releases from the US should tell investors a lot more about where the Federal Reserve is taking policy. Nonfarm Payrolls First Friday of the month means only one thing: it’s nonfarm payrolls day. The monthly change in nonfarm employment is always closely watched as arguably the best indicator of the health of the US economy and future course of monetary policy. The other number is the average earnings, which is the critical leading indicator for pushing up inflation to the Fed’s target rate. The release usually results in some volatility in the US dollar, US Treasury notes (particularly the more policy sensitive 2-year bond), and US equities. US Inflation On Tuesday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is released. Core inflation has remained stubbornly […]

FTSE’s Super Thursday Earnings Session

Author: Phil Evans / In News

FTSE100 More than a quarter of the FTSE 100 will report results on Thursday (27/07/2017) in what’s set to be one of the busiest and potentially volatile sessions for the blue chip index of the year. Several big hitters, including British American Tobacco, Diageo, Royal Dutch Shell, Lloyds and AstraZeneca, are due to update the market. Combined, the companies reporting on Thursday make up more than 27% of the FTSE 100 by index weighting. US Also on Thursday we get the second quarter earnings from Amazon, while Facebook is due to report its Q2 earnings after the market closes later today. Germany It’s also a huge day for the Germany 30 with BASF, Bayer, Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen reporting earnings. Summary In total we have €4.7 trillion of market cap reporting this week, with more than half of this on Thursday. Source: ETX Capital How Stock Markets Work – What […]