Independent Investor News and Updates

Week Ahead: Canadian Dollar and Oil in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Brexit Talks Theresa May doesn’t yet have a deal with the DUP but that is not getting in the way of the official commencement of Brexit talks on Monday. Britain’s negotiating stance looks a little muddled. The official position remains that laid out by Mrs May in January, but increasingly we are seeing calls for a softer stance, Philip Hammond, the UK chancellor, has stepped up calls for jobs and the economy to be at the centre of talks – a sign that he is prepared to push for a softer Brexit. Sterling could be sensitive to news from the discussions as traders look for signs of what kind of deal Britain is going to get. Canada Data Canada’s dollar surged last week as the country’s central bank signalled it could be a lot closer to raising interest rates than previously expected. USDCAD dropped to a four month low as […]

Week Ahead: Nonfarm Payrolls Eyed before Fed Meeting in June

Author: Phil Evans / In News

The corporate diary is pretty bare but there is plenty on the macro front to look forward to. Here’s our look ahead at some of the biggest events for the markets this week. US Nonfarm Payrolls Jobs growth bounced back in April following a pretty lacklustre performance in March, stiffening expectations that the Federal Reserve faces few obstacles to raising rates at its June meeting. With the FOMC convening in a fortnight’s time for that crunch decision, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) will be as closely watched as ever for clues about how strong the US economy appears. Weighing on any positivity in the report are renewed doubts about the reflationary policies of president Trump, which has forced two of the biggest investment banks to trim their bond yield forecasts for 2018. Nevertheless, the monthly NFP release should provide all the usual volatility in US Treasuries, the dollar and equity markets. […]

Week Ahead: FOMC Meeting Minutes in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Attention shifts back to the dollar and US interest rates this week as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are released. Meanwhile, flash PMI readings, GDP estimates and a batch of corporate earnings will provide plenty of action. FOMC Minutes The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold at its May meeting but left the door wide open to hike in June. Market expectations are running high with the US central bank very much odds-on to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. With no press conference following that meeting, attention is very much on the minutes, which are to be released at the usual time of 19:00 (BST) on Wednesday. Markets will be eyeing what officials made of the relatively lacklustre Q1 GDP reading and where they stand on trimming the balance sheet.   Flash PMIs Tuesday sees the monthly flash estimates for the manufacturing and […]

Week Ahead: UK and Eurozone Data to Drive Sterling, Euro Pairs

Author: Phil Evans / In News

After a busy period for central bank meetings, Q1 earnings and the French election, this week is quieter as markets head into the latter half of May in a fairly sedate mood. Inflation After the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold last week, Tuesday’s UK CPI inflation figures will be closely watched to see whether the Monetary Policy Committee is on the money or if it risks falling behind the curve by remaining overly dovish. Inflation has jumped to 2.3% but with growth lacklustre there seems little impetus to raise rates soon unless price growth really starts to accelerate. On Wednesday there is the final reading for CPI inflation in the Eurozone. With estimates indicating that inflation rebounded last month to 1.9% from a lacklustre rise in March, the data could be important for the European Central Bank as it eyes a potential reduction in its quantitative easing […]

Week ahead: Markets Await France’s Presidential Election Result

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Week Ahead: Markets on edge as either Macron or Le Pen will become the next President of France. French Election The big risk event takes place on Sunday, May 7th, with the second round runoff in the French presidential election. By the time European markets open on Monday morning we should know the next resident of the Elysee Palace. Emmanuel Macron is odds-on to win after running out the winner in the first round, but a surprise victory for Le Pen could cause a major upset to financial markets should it occur. So far the likely Macron victory is being seen as a ‘good thing’ for markets, with European equities rising along with the euro. Following the first round vote France’s CAC 40 index jumped 4% to trade at its highest in almost a decade. The euro also climbed as bears were squeezed but to date the single currency is […]