Independent Investor News and Updates

Week Ahead: French and UK Elections in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

French Election Fallout Monday kicks off the week with the result of the French presidential first round, which is likely to dominate the European open. A tight four-horse race means investors won’t know for sure who is going into the May run-off until all the votes are in. We should have a flash estimate of results from 8pm local time on Sunday. With Le Pen, Fillon, Macron and Melenchon all polling around 20% heading into Sunday’s vote, any combination is possible for the second round of the election. Indeed there is a roughly one in ten chance of a Le Pen-Melenchon tete-a-tete, the market nightmare scenario. No wonder that investors continue to price in a risk premium for French government debt and the euro. Monday could therefore see a major shift in asset allocation depending on whether the results are considered to be more or less market-friendly. UK Snap Election […]

Week Ahead: French Presidential Election and US Earnings Season

Author: Phil Evans / In News

French Election Political risk rears its head this week as we approach the French presidential election on Sunday, April 23rd. A key moment for France, it is also a potential watershed for the Eurozone. A win for Marine Le Pen, though polls show is unlikely, could spark France’s exit from the single currency and a possible breakup of the Eurozone. Polls indicate she will win the first round on Sunday but come second in the May 7th run-off vote. Credit Suisse dubbed the elections the “greatest existential risk for Europe”, while JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon in his annual letter to shareholders warned that following Brexit, there is the potential for the EU to “split apart”. How to trade it? The euro is a proxy for the political risk, rising when markets expect Le Pen to lose, falling when the chance of her winning rises. As such there expected to be […]

Spreadex: Spread cuts (inc. Dow from 1.7 pts)

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Spreadex have cut their spreads on a variety of markets including Wall St (Dow Jones) which can now be traded from 1.7pts. The full list of changes here:   Name Old New Wall Street, Daily 2 1.7 (2.7 out of hours) France 40 Daily 3 1 (2 out of hours) US Tech 100 2 1 (2 out of hours) German Bund 3 2 German Bobl 3 2 German Schatz 3 2 French OAT 8 5 Long Term BTP 8 5 View all spread betting brokers.  

Week ahead: Wall Street Earnings Season Gets Going

Author: Phil Evans / In News

US bank earnings Financials have been at the front of the Trump rally and this week we’ll get a much clearer idea of whether they can justify their lofty valuations. The S&P 500 financials sector has the star performer since last November, rising nearly 25% in the last six months on the prospect of rising interest rates and looser regulation boosting earnings. Banks have been key to the stock market’s gains, particularly as they have an outsized effect on the Dow Jones industrial average. But US earnings expectations, although high, are beginning to be revised down. At the same time there are fresh doubts about whether President Trump will succeed with his deregulation agenda. Financials kick off the start of Q1 earnings season proper on Thursday, with Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase all set to report. UK inflation Kristin Forbes was the lone hawk among the doves at the […]

Week Ahead: PMIs & NFP to Guide Central Bank Predictions

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Central banks always bang on about monetary policy being data-dependent. This week’s batch of PMI surveys, which complete the picture for Q1 GDP growth, will provide a good idea of just what they might be thinking. Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers will be central to expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s course of action. PMI Surveys April kicks off with the final PMI readings for Q1 for a host of major economies. With business surveys and recent PMIs hitting six-year highs markets expect another round of upbeat numbers for the manufacturing and services sectors. Among the most closely followed releases is Wednesday’s UK services PMI. A bellwether for the wider UK economy, this report is likely to offer a clearer idea of just how resilient Britain’s businesses are in the face of Brexit. The manufacturing PMI on Monday will also be watched for signs of continued pressure on input prices which […]