If you’re thinking about shorting the market either through contracts for difference or financial spread betting it must seem quite tempting now.  The market is having a bad January so far.  But the question is whether it will keep falling.
As always we can give one answer with total certainty: We don’t know.  All that follows are guesses.
Firstly the market has been rising for a very long time since its lows in March.  In March the market was on the floor so it was perhaps due a bit of a rise, even a sharp rise.  However this rise was due to relief that the world had not ended, but it just kept going up and up.  This was far beyond any logic.
What seems to have been treated as good news is when looking more closely not so good.  One recent example has been the record retail sales at various shops.  Surely that’s good news?  And the shares rose.  Then the retailers’ trade body pointed out that this was due to the fact that a lot of shops went bankrupt so leaving fewer shops to go around.  So although this is good news for a few shops it’s not good news for the whole market.
So we have a set of very flattering valuations for most big companies, a drastic programme of debt reduction very soon at all levels from the government down to the individual and we have the trigger of a fall in the markets that’s shaken the conviction of many market players in the inexorable upwards direction of the market.
Everything seems to be pointing to the market going down.  It probably means that the thing will go up now.