We predicted that the Tories had not convinced the public to take the bitter medicine that we so clearly needed to take. After the debate stopped the election being a choice between Gordon Brown and anyone else the Tory lead has melted away like snow in the mid-day sun.
So the election is a few days away. Will the Tories pull back enough to win a majority? Probably not. Voters are not quite sure who to back if they want to get rid of their Labour MP.
As people say that Cameron peaked too early, the same could be said about Nick Clegg (although in weeks not years). There’s little doubt that Nick Clegg has since the leaders’ debates put on a number of points and this will have a pronounced effect on the voting, but it will be lower than the opinion polls.
This creates an opportunity as the Liberal Democrat seat count looks too high on the spread betting market, as does their share of the vote. They rely on slow burn campaigning for a number of years or by-election style extreme concentration of resources – neither of which is suited to the widespread opportunistic shifting of funds and helpers that both Labour and the Tories seem to have in place.
Labour is doing dreadfully and they have a truly awful leader. However this does not mean that Labour is out of the running for making any coalition government. The Liberal Democrats are not Nick Clegg and Vince Cable, they are the members and the members have the final say.
So Labour in government looks very good value, even if the seats look about right.
The Conservatives? As the odds have moved against them they are paradoxically better placed and they are not nearly as highly priced as they used to be. If you’ve made some money betting against them, it’s probably time to cash in.