The markets have been, by far accommodating in 2015 but a sense of vulnerability is keeping the overexcitement at bay. Playing these fears we have come up with a short list of black-swan type events that have the propensity to have the same sort of effect as the unravelling of the Swiss franc against the euro.
It is rare that the Swiss National Bank surprises the impact given the massive trading losses on some currency trading desks and in retrospect, the move was in fact predictable given the euro’s precipitous decline in recent months and the prospect of the ECB implementing massive quantitative easing.
U.S. Monetary Policy Mistake
The Federal Reserve is facing a very hard challenge after seven years of near-zero interest rates, it will need to carefully approach a communication needle to ease markets into a potential rate hike in 2015.
Cyber-Attacks on Financial/Government Infrastructure
A more solid effort by hackers could possibly cause severe economic damage should the banking networks or other similar payment systems are compromised.
Redux in the Euro-crisis
While a complete breakup of the Eurozone may still be regarded as an apocalyptic scenario, the exit of a country can no longer be considered completely out of the question and would be sufficiently disrupted for the shocks to be experience well beyond the Eurozone.
More economic slowdown in China
An obvious ongoing reform initiative and years of central planning mismanagement resulted in a much more serious slowdown than most market participants have earlier anticipated.
An overall decline in global growth
With most monetary policy tools, many are exhausted by most of the world’s biggest economies and with the ECB on the verge of completing the launch of its broad QE programme. few barrage against slowing growth remain available to policy makers.
More contraction in commodity pricing
More commodity price declines could disrupt markets via defaults on corporate debt in the energy and material sectors with general corruption to global credit markets.
A considerable terrorism shock
A series of well-concerted and coordinated attacks in European capitals, for instance, could substantially prevent and deter major economic activity as individuals avoid city centres and other high-risk potential terrorist targets.
Social unrest in oil-exporting countries
The diminishing oil might create unexpected instability throughout Latin American and Africa. In Nigeria, a failure of the state to keep order might result in a spillover to neighbouring countries and a reluctance by investors to further develop the region.