Oil prices last week was able to settle at its peak in almost three-weeks as a technical bounce with optimism regarding the summer driving season as well as expectations for a weekly decline in the U.S. crude commodities having received credit for the modest move by far.
Traders are evaluated as the latest monthly oil reports from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations which left its yearly forecast for the world demand for oil, remained generally unchanged.
Crude oil for June delivery CLM4 plus 0.67 % went up $1.11 (1.1 %) to settle at $101.7 a barrel on the New York Mercantile exchange with prices sorting its highest since last month. Moreover, oil traders looked far ahead on last week’s supply efforts from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration respectively.
According to technical analysts, the data released earlier last week revealed that there was an unexpected decline in crude inventories and if there comes another decline, it could possibly result towards a similar last month’s high of $105 in the coming days.
Experts polled that a predicted decline of 1.5 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week will end any time soon. Furthermore, they also forecasted that gasoline inventories will also decline by 1 million barrels and consider a possible rise of 1 million barrels for distillates which includes heating oil.
Moreover, analysts at DTN also predict that oil was sort of making a bounce off with some technical price support, even taking into consideration that Nymex oil had been analysing support at approximately $99.88 and $98.23 over the course of three weeks. Furthermore, crude oil could also be seeing some purchases on fundamentals on the approach of heavier driving season which correspondingly bolstered demand.
Forecasts by OPEC
A monthly report released last week revealed that OPEC is expecting the world demand for oil to increase by an estimated 1.14 million barrels a day by this fiscal year and will reach a peak of 91.15 million barrels a day. Unremarkably, nearly 1/2 of the yearly oil demand growth is seen coming from the Middle East and China.
OPEC also mentioned that demand for its own crude this year is predicted at 29.8 million barrels a day, which is down 400,000 barrels a day from its last year’s demand. Production growth from non-OPEC production is expected to reach an average of 1.38 million barrels a day this year which is 1.35 million barrels more as compared last year.
However, recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics last week was regarded as a downbeat showing that the nation’s industrial production have already waned to 8.7 % from a year earlier along with retail-sales growth easing to 11.9 % from a previous 12.2 % in the first quarter.
In U.S. economic news, retail sales increased a meagre 0.1 % last month while business inventories went up by less than expected 0.4 % during the first quarter. Last week, oil prices logged their first session gain in three with, U.S. benchmark setting slightly above the $100 a barrel on continued uncertainty in the Ukraine, despite the news that Saudi Arabia had already made contingencies regarding the shortages resulting from the upheaval.
Finally, June natural gas NGM14 settled 1.23 % at $4.36 per million in British thermal units, coming off nearly 8 cents (1.7 %) following Monday’s 2.1 decline on easing supply anxieties.