Markets yet again failed to follow through on moves with the Equity markets almost moribund throughout yesterday’s session. The FTSE looked to be on the ropes early in the session but the selling at the open was quickly quenched as buyers came in to move the markets back up to the 5300 level (where we remain this morning). More and more poor to dreadful news is percolating out of the various global state and quasi state financial situations. Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Ireland and the UK are in dire need of a virtual miracle to avoid a grim period over the next five to ten years.
Tomorrow will see Alistair Darling’s latest fantasy budget announcement as he desperately seeks tax income from any portion of the electorate that is currently in the popularity sin bin. Democracy by stirring up hatred for one minority segment of the population. Unfortunately for the Labour party what goes down well with the badly educated and badly informed does not bode well for the economic well being of the UK.
This morning sees slight weakness across the board but nothing too alarming with the FTSE called down about 20 points on the open at 5290 and the Dax and Dow similarly slipping slightly. We remain well and truly stuck in the middle of the current trading ranges for the indices with the FTSE oscillating around5250 to 5350 with the odd attempt 50 points to either side of this. The dax similarly stuck below 5860 and above 5600 and the S&P and Dow seemingly wedded to 1100 and 10400 respectively.
Day Traders continue to make hay in the sun as all attempts to break out seem to eventually come to nothing.
The Currency markets may become the exception if the recent strength in the dollar gains traction and the breaking of the long term bear dollar trend line versus the Euro in the last few sessions is not reversed. Unfortunately for Euro bears the price supports at 1.4800 and 1.4680 (roughly) have yet to be convincingly defeated and so the bulls, looking for a return to an attempt at 1.5140 and on to the highs of 2008 at the 1.60, are still in the game. All we can definitely state is that the general range between 1.4680 and 1.5060 remains the game in town.
Gold has regained some traction after the sell off on Friday but selling in early action this morning is giving the bulls another period of worry. The recent very minor strength in the Greenback and small indication of economic strength from the Non Farm Payroll triggered a pretty exciting move (from 1210 down to 1140). The bull move is still very much intact but much more of this might dent the never ending exuberance of the Gold bugs. While this remains a possibility it must still be noted that even minor weakness in the dollar still has the power to bring out the buyers in force.
As mentioned quite a few times recently the Oil market is looking a tad weak. Especially given the apparent return to growth of some of the Major western economies. A clue to this might be the recent spate of failings in ‘corporate’ Middle East. There may be need for extra revenue to counter growing insolvencies in OPEC nations and the taps may be in the process of easing just a bit. Good for growth prospect bad for oil bulls.