It seems that like the ancient mariner we are doomed to tell the same tale day after day after day.
All the indices are well and truly stuck in the current trading ranges even though there has been the odd attempt over the last few weeks to break out (both up and down), ditto currencies, ditto Oil etc etc. Even Gold seems strangely attracted to the $1170-1190 level (after the excitement of last Friday) and in the current trading patterns the technical chartists are making hay in the sun.
Identifying support and resistance levels has become quite simple and so long as traders stick to what their analysis is telling them then, so long as the contained ranges continue, they should be able to benefit.
The FTSE is called some 40 points to the good this morning at around 5235 after the 5170 support held in late trade yesterday. Today is pointing, in early action, like taking a look at resistance at 5265 and possibly the tricky 5305 region which has proved something of a pivot point over the last few months.
For currency markets the Euro is once again pushing to the upside versus the dollar at 1.5030 as I write. Resistance is at 1.5050 to 1.5065 and support at the failure point to the downside at 1.4965. The swift rejection, last Friday, of the level below the major trend line support (currently at around 1.4930) would seem to be indicative of a continuation of the Euro bull run but traders appear to be somewhat cautious at these levels. In recent weeks we have been building a bearish pennant formation, with one break up and one down, a move below the aforementioned 1.4930 would possibly be seen as extremely bearish.
We are currently seeing solid selling of the dollar in early trade with Cable now at 1.6450 having hit a low overnight at 1.6395. In truth the pound has been stuck in a tight trading range versus the greenback for some six months with one extension rally up to 1.70 and one attempt to move lower failing at 1.5730. Dealers have become used to the oscillations between (approximately) 1.60/1.62 and 1.67/1.68. Every time we threaten the top of this range everyone thinks ‘this is it’ to the upside and the same when we approach the bottom.
With the weakness in the dollar, Gold is attempting to break higher (again) with the spot price now at 1185 up 5 buck overnight. As mentioned, ad nauseam in these comments over the last year, Gold continues to benefit from an almost perfect storm of weak currencies, minimal interest rates, fears about future inflation and fears about financial stability. None of these worries looks like going away any time soon and so the march higher goes on. Not only this but the big (BIG) commodity traders are apparently massively long as well. It is a brave man who disagrees with John Paulson!
Arguments continue with China over their refusal to let the Yuan float and there is a feeling that the EU lawmakers are growing slightly impatient. The huge trade deficit with the Far East should be indicating a rising currency base but, as mentioned before, many of the major exporting nations have a dollar fix in place. This is bad enough for the US but positively disastrous for Euroland, the UK (and Japan). Any attempt to grow out of the recession is hampered by the rising cost of European exports and the ever cheapening cost of produce from the Far East. China is threatening trade barriers over individual commodities/products but this is a very dangerous game as they may run into a rising clamour from French and German (to name just a few) industry for trade tariffs on their general exports.
Oil has now rejected the lows and seems to be on the way up again. $75 seems to be sacrosanct although, as with gold, Friday was a bit of a blow out. We are currently at 77.70 and buying is strong in early action. Bulls will be targeting 80/81 bucks while bears will be hoping for a swift return to the 75.50 support. Neither level looks much like being threatened just at the moment and punters are continuing to just enjoy the range trade.