Independent Investor News and Updates - Part 2

Week Ahead: Focus on Inflation and Retail Sales Data, Brexit Looms

Author: Phil Evans / In News

FX markets have taken rising bond yields and the prospect of tighter Fed policy in their stride; it was the equity markets that reacted violently to a re-pricing of US monetary policy. With this in mind the week ahead contains some key releases on US inflation and retail sales that could deliver more volatility for financial markets. Inflation Coming off the back of rising bond yields, the surprising rise in US wages in the nonfarm payroll report was the cue for a big selloff in stock markets. Markets appeared concerned that average earnings growth of 2.9% suddenly heralded the end of cheap money, a more hawkish Fed and higher rates. An overreaction perhaps, and one that was undoubtedly compounded by some technical moves in the Vix and short volatility trades, but nevertheless markets are having to adjust to normalisation by the Fed. So US CPI inflation due on Wednesday will […]

Week Ahead: Bank of England, RBA and RBNZ Interest Rate Decisions in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

Following the Fed’s marginally hawkish shift last week, picking up the central bank mantle in the coming days are the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Bank of England Is the Bank of England mulling another interest rate hike sooner rather than later? While there is no expectation for a change in policy this week, there have been murmurings around the monetary policy committee having more leeway to raise rates faster than previously expected. Fourth quarter growth, which defied expectations to remain robust, has some economists thinking the BoE will move to increase rates in the summer. Meanwhile, the BoE itself is starting to think along more conventional lines as it focuses on a return to wage growth. And while inflation resulting for the depreciation in sterling is becoming less important, rising oil prices are pushing up input costs and may keep […]

Week Ahead: Trump’s First State of the Union Address, US Inflation & FAANG Earnings

Author: Phil Evans / In News

After a rout in the US dollar focus shifts to whether inflationary pressures are building enough to persuade the Federal Reserve to hike more aggressively than it has been doing. State of the Union Address President Trump sets out his priorities for the year ahead and recaps the last 12 months in his first State of the Union address on Tuesday night. Following mixed messages on the US dollar, the main focus of the markets is trade and whether the administration plans to ramp up the protectionist agenda. US Inflation The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, arrives on Monday after a sharp pullback in the US dollar and a rally in US Treasury yields. The data is the last of any real importance before the Federal Reserve convenes this week and will be important for shaping market expectations for USD. Core PCE has […]

Week Ahead: Davos, ECB, Earnings and US GDP in Focus

Author: Phil Evans / In News

As earnings season on Wall Street hits full pace and the great and good of finance convene in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum, forex traders are looking at the first European Central Bank meeting of 2018 and the preliminary GDP prints for the final quarter of last year from the US and the UK. World Economic Forum in Davos Donald Trump says he’s attending and just about every other important name in world finance should be in attendance at some stage for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos. In addition to trade, top of the agenda may well be cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and other cryptos suffered large falls last week as the regulatory noose appeared to tighten with South Korea and China making moves to ban trading. The Davos forum may offer policymakers the first chance to discuss a more unified regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies ahead of the […]

Week Ahead: Earnings Season Builds, Bank of Canada Set to Hike

Author: Phil Evans / In News

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise rates this week as earnings season on Wall Street looks likely to drive global equity markets. Wall Street Earnings Banks unofficially kicked things off last week and now earnings season on Wall Street gets into full stride. Financials make most of the running with Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon all set to report quarterly earnings. Of those Goldman is the only Dow Jones component, although American Express and UnitedHealth Group are also set to release earnings. You can read our US earnings preview here. Bank of Canada With the latest labour market figures showing Canada’s unemployment rate at its lowest in 40 years, the country’s central bank is expected to raise rates this week. Jobless numbers reveal slack in the labour market has diminished significantly even after the Bank of Canada begun […]